Find a waiting-time percentile

Find the time below which a selected share of an exponential model lies.

Guides · Basic statistics · 4 min read

Example: a 90th-percentile waiting time

Assume exponentially distributed waits with a mean of twelve minutes. Find the time containing 90% of the modeled waits.

Download the scenario reference (CSV)

This is the same example used in Help. The CSV lists reference scenarios. Enter the selected scenario manually on Inputs; importing it does not configure this calculator. Use Open example in a practice copy in Help to prefill the inputs.

1. Create the workspace

In the sidebar, open Basic Statistics and choose Distributions. Create an analysis, name it, select New blank worksheet, then choose Create analysis.

2. Choose the calculation

On Inputs, choose Continuous for Distribution type, Exponential for Distribution, then Inverse cumulative probability (quantile) for Calculation.

3. Enter the model

Choose Mean θ for Exponential parameter. Enter 12 in Mean (θ), in minutes.

4. Enter the question

Choose Single probability for Probability input source. Enter 0.9 in Cumulative probability. No worksheet columns are assigned.

Distributions: Inputs with the example’s assignments and settings
Inputs with the selected distribution, calculation, model parameters and question. View full-size image (opens in a new tab)

5. Run analysis

Choose Run analysis, then open Results.

6. Interpret results

  1. Check the question

    Assume exponentially distributed waits with a mean of twelve minutes. Find the time containing 90% of the modeled waits.

  2. Read the calculated value

    The Quantile is about 27.63 minutes. This is a model percentile, not a confidence limit or a maximum wait.

  3. Understand what it means

    The result treats the entered mean of 12 minutes as given; uncertainty in an estimated mean is not included.

  4. Use the model carefully

    Under the stated model, 90% of waits are at or below about 27.63 minutes and 10% are longer. Compare that time with your waiting-time target and check that the model represents the operating period.

More details: read each result section

Complete result tables use six significant digits, as in Help.

Distribution quantiles

Probability target is the entered lower-tail probability. Quantile is the corresponding waiting time, in minutes. This is a model percentile, not a confidence limit or a maximum wait. Its accuracy depends on the entered mean and the waiting-time model.

Distribution quantiles · 1 row
Probability targetQuantile
0.927.631

Distribution summary

Type distinguishes continuous values from whole-number counts. Distribution names the model. Calculation records PMF (exact-count probability), PDF (density), CDF (cumulative probability) or ICDF (quantile). The remaining rows record the active parameters; they are assumptions entered on Inputs.

Distribution summary · 4 rows
SettingValue
TypeContinuous
DistributionExponential
CalculationICDF
Mean (θ)12
  • Exponential(mean θ=12.0) via expon(scale=θ)

7. Create a report

Keep Distribution values (or the quantile table) and Distribution summary. State the model assumptions, time unit or count interval, and the question being answered. This is a model percentile, not a confidence limit or a maximum wait. Its accuracy depends on the entered mean and the waiting-time model.

Choose Add to report from the completed run. Open Choose individual items and advanced options to select tables and charts, then choose Add to draft. Hidden items stay in the saved analysis.

Name the report and add the purpose of the study and your interpretation. Choose Save, review Preview, then use Export → Download HTML. The example below contains the full selected content, including results beyond one screen.

Complete native output for this Help example, including applicable tables, charts and run notes. Report numbers use the app’s displayed precision. Exported charts are static. On narrow screens, scroll wide charts and tables sideways.
View example report: Waiting time with 90% of the model distribution below it

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